Listen to a replay of our first quarter 2020 Litman Gregory research team webinar. Topics covered (among others): U.S. stock valuations, managed futures, munis vs. taxable bonds, REITs, the tsunami of federal spending.
At our recent Investment Forum, held November 2019, Litman Gregory senior research analyst Jack Chee interviewed Guggenheim Global CIO Scott Minerd. Their conversation touched on Guggenheim’s investing approach, recession risk, the corporate bond market, the trade war, and even immigration. Here are clips of their discussion:
Building a “Slow-Thinking” Team
Drawing off Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations and the work of Nobel Prize–winner Danny Kahneman, Scott Minerd was the main architect of Guggenheim’s “slow-thinking” team approach.
Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd likens the current market environment to an Indian summer. A return of warm weather right before winter common in the Northeast: It usually comes late … and it’s relatively short-lived.
Corporate America: Ground Zero of the Next Crisis
Overleveraged corporate America and the corporate bond market will be the ground zero of the next financial crisis according to Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd.
The Fed: The Only Game in Town?
Scott Minerd: “The source of, and solution to, every financial crisis is the central bank.”
Avoiding the Death Spiral
Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd says all you have to do is look back to 1930 and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act to see how a tit-for-tat trade war can escalate into a “death spiral.”
Learning from Australia
Scott Minerd discusses the need for a rational immigration policy that supports entrepreneurship and labor force growth. Note: These materials are intended for the use of investment professionals only and may contain information that is not suitable for all investors. This presentation is provided by Litman Gregory Asset Management, LLC (“Litman Gregory”) for informational purposes only and no statement is to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell a security, or the rendering of personalized investment advice. There is no agreement or understanding that Litman Gregory will provide individual advice to any investor or advisory client in receipt of this document. Certain information constitutes “forward-looking statements” and due to various risks and uncertainties actual events or results may differ from those projected. Some information contained in this report may be derived from sources that we believe to be reliable; however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or timeliness of such information. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and there can be no assurance the views and opinions expressed herein will come to pass. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Any reference to a market index is included for illustrative purposes only, as an index is not a security in which an investment can be made. Indexes are unmanaged vehicles that do not account for the deduction of fees and expenses generally associated with investable products. A complete list of LGAM’s investment recommendations for the prior 12 months is available upon written request. For additional information about Litman Gregory, please consult the Firm’s Form ADV disclosure documents, the most recent versions of which are available on the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website (adviserinfo.sec.gov) and may otherwise be made available upon written request.
What a difference a year makes. While in 2018, it was very difficult to make money in financial markets, in 2019, pretty much everything went up … a lot. In our year-end 2019 commentary, we identify the reasons to be cautiously optimistic in 2020, and the number of shorter-term risks to be aware of.
Listen to a replay of our first quarter 2019 Litman Gregory research call. Topics covered (among others): the equity rebound, conditions in Europe, floating-rate loans, managed futures, and emerging-market bonds. The presentation slides are available below.
Across the board, it was an extremely difficult year to make money in the financial markets, with almost every asset class and financial market down for the year. The contrast with 2017’s strong market results is also striking—and serves as a useful reminder of the unpredictability of markets.
Advisors are invited to hear the replay of Litman Gregory’s October 18 Research Call webinar. This quarter we discuss our equity market views, the value of alternative strategies, our response to Howard Marks’s recent memo, Oakmark and Cove Street funds.