At a time when U.S. stocks have continued to outperform, clients and advisors sometimes ask us why we don’t allocate more to U.S. stocks. When we aggregate the three return components of stock returns in our base case, future five-year expected U.S. stock returns are less than one percent, annualized, and this is despite relatively generous margin and sales-growth assumptions.US_Stocks_Are_Priced_As_If_History_Is_Irrelevant
We visited the offices of Jennison Associates, subadvisor to Harbor Capital Appreciation, and our discussions confirmed the many qualitative positives behind our use of the fund in many of our portfolios. We are confident it will continue to outperform the large-cap growth index and the broader S&P 500. Capacity constraints are not a concern given the strategy invests predominantly in large-cap U.S. stocks. And the fund’s five-year trailing returns have consistently ranked in the top third of its category in recent years.Harbor_Capital_Appreciation_Update_LGPS-1
Listen to a replay of our first quarter 2019 Litman Gregory research call. Topics covered (among others): the equity rebound, conditions in Europe, floating-rate loans, managed futures, and emerging-market bonds. The presentation slides are available below.
View and download the presentation slides here:Litman_Gregory_Q1-2019_Research-Call_Presentation_Slides
Across the board, it was an extremely difficult year to make money in the financial markets, with almost every asset class and financial market down for the year. The contrast with 2017’s strong market results is also striking—and serves as a useful reminder of the unpredictability of markets.Year-End-2018_Investment_Commentary
Advisors are invited to hear the replay of Litman Gregory’s October 18 Research Call webinar. This quarter we discuss our equity market views, the value of alternative strategies, our response to Howard Marks’s recent memo, Oakmark and Cove Street funds.
View and download the presentation slides here:Litman-Gregory-Q3-2018-Research-Call-Presentation-Slides
In 2018, US stocks have strongly outperformed emerging-market (EM) stocks, but this kind of divergence is not unusual. Still, given the negative headlines surrounding emerging markets, we highlight several points this quarter that indicate EM stocks remain attractive and their long-term growth outlook remains intact. On the other hand, US stocks look expensive and there are reasons to think the near- and medium-term outlook for them is not so rosy. They represent a risk to our portfolios, which is why we maintain a meaningful underweight to US stocks.Third-Quarter-2018_Investment_Commentary-1